Burning Down the House

Flames Draft Preview

Needless to say, ever since the Flames announced that they would be opting to keep their 2009 1st round draft pick, I have been looking forward to tomorrow’s draft in Montreal with great interest.

The 2009 draft class is fantastically deep, with anywhere from 40-50 really quality players available. Sitting at 20th overall, Darryl Sutter and the Flames will have the opportunity to draft a high quality prospect to add to the good work the scouting department have done the past two summers. 

Unfortunately, for the 5th straight year, there will be no 2nd round pick unless a trade or two shakes up the situation. As it stands now, the Flames will draft one player in the 3rd round (67th), two in the 4th (107, 111), and one each in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds (141, 171, 201).

Prospect Pipeline

As always, the most important pick for Flames fans is that #20 overall. But what are the Flames’ most pressing needs? Here is what the Flames pipeline depth looks like at all 5 positions:

As most know, the Flames are not known for having a deep group of prospects by any stretch. I believe that this is consistent with Sutter’s (Darryl, that is) win-now approach. I also think that he is quite content with having just one or two players in the system projected for each specific role.

The system is pretty well stocked at defense, with Pelech probably transitioning into the NHL this upcoming season. Negrin and Aulie will follow over the next 2-3 years.

Irving is still the future in net, but don’t get impatient with him. The Flames are doing everything right with him, and he’ll be brought along slowly and begin to relieve Kiprusoff after another 2 seasons of mostly AHL action. Matt Keetley also has a bit of NHL potential in him, but that is more likely as a back-up, similar to the role Curtis McElhinney is filling now with the big club.

The forward ranks are stocked with mostly grinding forwards to fill the bottom two lines in Calgary. Greg Nemisz and Mikael Backlund are the two most skilled guys, and Mitch Wahl may one day turn into a decent 2nd/3rd line centerman like a Peca or Langkow-lite. The depth at LW is really suspect, especially if Kyle Greentree moves up to the NHL this fall as I expect him to. Kris Chucko is next in line for a 4th line role on the left side, and should get into more games this season.

Team Needs

Like many teams, the Flames pretty much have a need for players at every position. Expect them to use one of their late picks on a European or College-bound goaltender on Friday… a project that can take a few years developing while Irving and Keetley get their AHL reps in.

The two biggest needs are for a scoring forward (LW, if possible) and a puck-moving defenseman. Luckily, there should be quite a few of these types of players available in the 20-30 range, allowing for Sutter to possibly trade down and gain a pick in the 2nd round.

Possible Selections - Scoring Forwards

There are a number of intriguing options in this draft.

My first choice would be Landon Ferraro, one of the lone bright lights on Brent Sutter’s Red Deer Rebels this season. He’s an extremely smart and mature kid with lightning fast wheels and a pro-calibre wrist shot.  To top it all off, his bread and butter in the WHL these past two seasons has been his responsible defensive play. The only downside here is a slightly undersized frame, but his father Ray was able to rise above that without too much trouble.

Also on the small side is another personal favourite, Kyle Palmieri. A tireless worker who excels in board battles, the size issue seems to less of a worry with the thicker Palmieri, who showed a high level of physical development at the draft Combine. The oft-raised red flag here is supposed “character issues” prompted by his dismissal from the USNTDP U18 team in late winter. However, some reports have surfaced that he was kicked off because he refused to rat out some teammates who may have joined him in some underage drinking. In other words, it was a bit of message-sending by the coaching staff for an offense that is practically a given here in Canada, and for some his commitment to his teammates may erase any concerns the incident may have produced. Many mock drafts I’ve seen don’t have Palmieri until the 23-24 spot, if in the 1st round at all. This may be an opportunity to trade down and gain picks, and still get a gifted American player with lots of heart and Sutter-ethic.

If the Flames decide they want to stick with the Nemisz trend and go for a larger (but perhaps slower developing) power forward, they may consider the smooth skating Peter Holland from the OHL’s Guelph Storm,  a western boy in Lethbridge’s Carter Ashton, or Kingston Frontenac and Doug Gilmore-coached Ethan Werek. Of these three, I lean slightly towards the more familiar Ashton, although I’d be hard pressed to defend the decision.

Pre-draft chatter seems to suggest that American highschooler Chris Kreider is destined to be picked before the Flames have a chance to hit the podium, but if he is indeed still around his size (6′2) and reputably superb skating would be hard to pass up. Kreider is bound for Boston University as well, which is a great program. Nashville’s Colin Wilson, after all, will likely graduate to the NHL after only a single year at the same school.

Three other American options are a good all-around center in Drew Shore, a pure sniper with possible “character issues” in Jeremy Morin, and the freakishly-well-developed-Lebron-like power forward, Zach Budish. Again, most rankings seem to have these guys in the 25+ range, and if the Sutterite colony feels they are nearly as good as the names mentioned above then this might be a good opportunity to trade down.

I’ll mention one other player who may slip to #20, and that is Quebec-born but Harvard-bound Louis Leblanc. The center’s vision and playmaking skills are much talked about, and I respect the hell out of anybody who can get into Harvard, but I do feel like his slight frame and school choice (Harvard doesn’t play as heavy a schedule as other development choices) push his NHL-impact too far out for the Flames.

Potential Picks - Defense

I’ve seen quite a few mock drafts that have the Flames choosing one of David Rundblad or Tim Erixon, both Swedish defenders with very different games. Rundblad is a high risk/reward skater who loves to join the rush, while Erixon reminds some of a young Mattias Ohlund. Both would be decent picks, but I wonder if experiences with Anders Eriksson and Andrei Zyuzin have scared the Flames off of European defenders.

Interestingly, both of TSN’s mock drafters (Pierre McGuire and Todd Button) have the Flames picking local product Dylan Olsen. The Camrose Kodiak is a big and steady blueliner, known more for defense than offense, although there does seem to be some upside with the puck. It wouldn’t be a terrible pick by any stretch, but I think I would be disappointed if the Flames didn’t try and upgrade their scoring options with their 1st rounder this year.

Simon Despres is another option; a kid with all the tools who wasn’t quite able to put them all together this past season. At one point in the year, he was in that 10-15 grouping in some rankings but now his position fluctuates wildly list-to-list. Given that the Flames aren’t known for their Francophone content, I wouldn’t bet much money on this pick.

Two interesting guys that could be found later in the 1st round are Calvin de Haan from the OHL’s Oshawa Generals, and WHL product Stefan Elliott of the Saskatoon Blades. Both are offensively minded and slight-framed.

De Haan started his rookie season being mentored by an excellent offensive defenseman, Michael Del Zotto. It was only after Del Zotto and Tavares were traded to the London Knights at the deadline that the rookie really came into his own, posting the majority of his points and really stepping up to lead a weaker team. If finding a powerplay quarterback for the future is a priority, de Haan may be a great pick.

Elliott has recently garnered comparisons to some guy named Mike Green, a likeness that will be near-impossible to match and one sure to set-up unrealistic expectations the more it gains momentum amongst media types in the next few days. Elliott is an excellent puck-rusher who nonetheless lacks Green’s physical aggressiveness at the moment… a homerun pick if he can develop his all-around game.

Mock Draft Results

Pierre McGuire / Craig Button (TSN) - Dylan Olsen

Dean Millard (TPS) - Landon Ferraro

Guy Flaming (TPS) - Carter Ashton

HockeysFuture.com - Landon Ferraro

Ryan Kennedy (THN.com) - Peter Holland

Matt Bugg (dobberhockey.com) - David Rundblad

My Choices

1. Landon Ferraro

2. Kyle Palmieri

3. Carter Ashton

4. Calvin de Haan (trade down)

5. Peter Holland

But really, I’ll be excited whatever happens!